Property cooling moves show results

The government's measures to cool the residential property market have had significant impact: Transaction volumes have plunged, new home loan sales have contracted and loan-to-value (LTV) ratios have improved.

"The series of property-related measures taken by the government over the past few years has dampened momentum in the market," said the Monetary Authority of Singapore Financial Stability Review 2013 yesterday.

But the government remains vigilant as price levels remain high, it said.

Despite slower sales, tender prices by developers have remained high. Last month's tender for two adjacent plots at Upper Serangoon View got eight bids each, with foreign developers continuing to outbid local players.

The increase in the private property price index has moderated since Q3 2009, with the average quarter-on-quarter rise of 0.67 per cent in the first three quarters of 2013 lower than the 0.70 per cent for 2012 and 1.43 per cent for 2011, the Review said.

Momentum has varied across different market segments. Prices of private residential properties in the Outside Central Region on average increased by 2.5 per cent per quarter in 2013. In contrast, prices in the Rest of Central Region and the Core Central Region have started to show some weakness, turning negative in Q3 2013.

Overall transactions have fallen by about a third while investment/speculative demand for home loans has halved.

Average monthly transactions fell to 2,100 units in the first 10 months of this year from 3,200 units last year. The fall in overall sales was driven by resale transactions, which fell by about half in 2013 (from an average of 1,100 units per month in 2012 to 600 units in 2013). New sales also dropped significantly to an average of 900 units per month between July and October 2013 (compared with an average of 1,600 units per month between 2011 and 2012) following the implementation of the Total

Debt Servicing Ratio framework in end-June. Sub-sale activity has remained subdued.

The measures appear to have had a dampening effect on the growth of outstanding housing loans, with the year-on-year growth slowing from a peak of 22 per cent in September 2010 to 12 per cent in September 2013.

The volume of new housing loans, which reflects trends in overall demand in the property market, has contracted to $8.8 billion in Q3 2013 from $13.5 billion a year earlier.

The share of new housing loans with LTV ratios higher than 70 per cent has also fallen from a peak of 77 per cent in Q2 2010 to stabilise at about 66 per cent since 2012.

For outstanding housing loans, the share of loans with LTVs above 70 per cent has fallen from a high of 35 per cent in Q3 2009 to 26 per cent in Q3 2013. The share of housing loans in negative equity also remains negligible.

The average LTV ratio of outstanding housing loans was 47.3 per cent in Q3 2013. The asset quality of property-related loans remains robust with the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at less than 0.5 per cent in Q3 2013.

Speculators seemed to have left the market in droves, with foreign buyers under 10 per cent. "Borrowers taking up a second or subsequent housing loan accounted for about 30 per cent of new housing loans in 2011. This share has dipped to 14 per cent in Q3 2013," said the Review.

The share of foreign purchases in total transactions continues to be small, at 9 per cent in Q3 2013 following the implementation of additional buyer stamp duty.

Furthermore, the average loan tenure of new housing loans has shortened from 30 years in Q3 2012, to about 24 years.

While the NPL ratio for housing loans remains low, close monitoring is warranted, it said.

"Strains on borrowers can quickly materialise if the economic outlook and employment conditions worsen, or interest rates - and therefore mortgage repayments - increase.

The vast majority of mortgage loans offered by financial institutions in Singapore are floating-rate packages. As some households may have over-leveraged in order to buy properties which are priced higher now than before, strains can quickly materialise if interest rates rise after being at a low level for a prolonged period of time."

The Monetary Authority of Singapore estimates that about 5-10 per cent of borrowers have monthly debt-servicing burden greater than 60 per cent and that the percentage of over-leveraged households could increase to 10-15 per cent should mortgage rates rise by 300 basis points.

The Review also noted the ample supply situation. In Q3 2013, there was a total supply of about 84,900 uncompleted private residential units from projects in the pipeline, an increase of about 13 per cent compared with the average supply in the last three years. Of these uncompleted units, about 37 per cent remained unsold in Q3 2013.

Apart from these, there were also 12,400 executive condominium (EC) units in the pipeline.

In addition, another 10,000 units will soon be added to the pipeline supply. In all, there will be about 107,400 private housing and EC units in the pipeline, many of which are expected to be completed over the next three to four years.

"While the property-related measures taken over the past few years have dampened momentum in the property market, vigilance is needed.

"Price levels remain high. The government will continue to monitor the property market closely, and if necessary, step in to ensure stability and sustainability in the property market," the Review said.

Source: 4th December 2013 Business Times

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