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What awaits stocks in 2016?
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The property market is about to hit bottom.
Policy-battered property developers will likely heave a sigh of relief once 2015 draws to a close. Analysts expect that some cooling measures might finally be eased in 2016, which in turn might provide a much-needed boost to beaten property stocks.
Private property prices have fallen by about 8% from their peak in 2013. Analysts expect that some cooling measures will be eased once prices have fallen by 12% to 15%, which is likely to occur either in the second half of 2016 or early in 2017.
“While government officials have been hinting that property-cooling measures will not be lifted soon, we continue to see 2016 as a possible time for a change,” noted a report by Maybank Kim Eng.
“We believe the government will not want to rock home prices too much, as this will have wider economic implications,” Maybank Kim Eng noted.
Meanwhile, analysts at RHB note that the property market is likely to hit bottom soon, as property sales volumes have already hit record lows.
“In past property cycles, volume troughs typically precede price troughs by 2-4 quarters. This also corroborates our view that a bottoming-out in 2016-2017 appears imminent,” said RHB.
RHB believes that property stocks are likely to rebound in 2016.
“The performance of property stocks precedes that of physical property prices by 2-3 quarters due to liquidity, ie there is a lag between the time it takes to sell physical properties vs stocks. The likelihood of a rebound in 12-18 months for property stocks certainly stacks up, in our view,” said the report.
Analysts at UOB Kay Hian believe that developers are unjustifiably cheap, and note that prices will rally once the government tweaks policy.
“Impetus exists for the government to calibrate overall home prices beyond severe downshifts. We believe the authorities will continue fine-tuning policies to avert home prices from plummeting beyond 20%. We believe this would entail a price fall of 12-15%, which should prompt the government to relax some of the property cooling measures. This could happen towards 3Q16 or 4Q16,” UOB Kay Hian said.
Source: Singapore Business Review 4th December 2015
Tagged in:
Economic fundamentals and Monetary Policy
GDP growth versus Property Price index
Singapore Property Cycle
Wide economic implications
District 1
Marina Bay Condo | Shenton Way Commercial | Marina Bayfront Condo | Central Boulevard Condo | Central Boulevard Towers | Marina View | V on Shenton | Marina South Pier Condo | Marina One Residences | Shenton Way Condo |
District 2
Pearl Bank En Bloc | Outram Park MRT Condo | Silat Residences | Avenue South Residence | Sky Everton | Sky Everton Freehold Condo Prices | Outram Road Condo | One Pearl Bank | Excellent Connectivity from One Pearl Bank | One Pearl Bank Design and Layouts | Pearl Bank Apartments | Asia Gardens | Anson Road Condo | Tanjong Pagar Condo | Tanjong Pagar Commercial | Greater Southern Waterfront | Wallich Residence | Tanjong Pagar Centre |
District 3
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District 4
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District 5
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District 7
CityGate Condo | Selegie Road Condo | Sophia Road Condo | Tan Quee Lan Street Condo | The M | Middle Road Condo | South Beach Residences | Duo Residences | Beach Road Bugis Rochor Condo | Midtown Suite | Midtown Bay | Midtown Bay Floor Plans and Facilities | Beach Road Commercial | Golden Mile Complex | Textile Centre | Golden Mile Complex En Bloc | Textile Centre En Bloc | The Oasis |
District 8
Peace Centre Mansions En Bloc | Perumal Road Condo | Northumberland Road Condo | Uptown at Farrer | 1953 Condo | LYF | Tessensohn Residence |
District 9
Cairnhill Mansions En Bloc | Orchard Bel-Air En-Bloc | Pacific Mansions En Bloc | Robertson Quay Condo | Paterson Road Condo | Cavenagh Gardens En-Bloc | Cavenagh Gardens | Cavenagh Road Condo | Orchard Boulevard Road Condo | Orchard Road Condo | Scotts Road Condo | Cairnhill Road Condo | Riviera Point | The Iveria | The Iveria Condo Floor Plans | Cairnhill Mansions | One Tree Hill | River Valley Road Condo | Martin Place Condo | Martin Modern | Kim Seng Road Condo | Handy Road Condo | Haus on Handy | Jiak Kim Street Condo | Riviere Condo | Fraser Residence Promenade | Avenir Condo | Pacific Mansions | Great World MRT Station Condo | Martin Place Residences | The Rise at Oxley Residences | Orchard Paterson Cairnhill Road Condo | Core Central Region Condo | Robertson Quay Condo | Paterson Collection | St Thomas Walk | Leonie Hill Road Condo | Horizon Towers | Leonie Gardens | New Futura | Cairnhill Nine | 3 Orchard by the Park | Twin Peaks |
District 10
Grange Road Condo | Farrer Road Condo | Tulip Gardens En Bloc | Tulip Garden Residences | Leedon Green | Leedon Green Floor Plans | Tulip Garden Residences Floor Plans | Tulip Garden | Tanglin Road Condo | Jervois Gardens | Crystal Towers | Juniper Hill Condo by AllGreen Properties | Juniper Hill | The Hyde at Balmoral | The Hyde | Balmoral Road Condo | Jervois Road Condo | Petit Jervois | Jervois Prive Exclusive Condo | Jervois Prive | Jervois Treasures Condo Floor Plans | Jervois Treasures | Tanglin Shopping Centre En Bloc | Tanglin Shopping Centre | Jervois Gardens En Bloc | Spring Grove En Bloc | Spring Grove | Hallmark Residences | Wilshire Residences | Sloane Residences | Ewe Boon Road Condo | Bukit Timah Road Condo | Bukit Timah Collection | Cluny Park Residence | Cuscaden Road Condo | Petit Cuscaden | Cuscaden Reserve | Cuscaden Reserve Condo Floor Plans | Boulevard 88 | Pollen and Bleu | Leedon Residence | Gramercy Park | Ardmore Three 3 | Sculptura Ardmore | RV Residences | Robin Residences | 18 Nouvel@ Anderson Road | Holland Road Condo | The Estoril | The Estoril En Bloc | Hollandia En Bloc | Hyll at Holland | Hollandia | TwentyOne Angullia Park | D'Leedon | Mon Jervois | Holland Village Residences | One Holland Village | One Holland Village A Mixed Development Design | Holland Village Condo | Van Holland | Van Holland Floor Plans | 15 Holland Hill | 15 Holland Hill Floor Plans |
District 11
Chancery Court En Bloc | Chancery Court Condo | Thomson Road Condo | Novena Condo | Newton Road Condo | Pullman Residences | Pullman Residences Floor Plans | Dunearn Road Condo | 386 Dunearn | Dunearn Court Condo | Derby Court | Fyve Derbyshire | Derbyshire Road Condo | Kampong Java Road |
District 12
Balestier Road Condo | Toa Payoh Condo | Neem Tree | Riverbay | Boon Teck Towers | Eight Riversuites | Boon Teck Towers En Bloc | Gem Residences | Kallang Riverside Condo |
District 13
Woodleigh Residences | Upper Serangoon Road Condo | Park Colonial | Woodleigh Lane Condo | Mattar Residences | Woodleigh MRT Condo | Woodleigh Condo | Woodleigh Link Condo | Bidadari New Estate Condo | Upper Aljunied Road Condo | Tre Ver | Raintree Gardens | Potong Pasir Avenue 1 Condo | Potong Pasir Condo | The Maisons | The Quinn | Mattar Road Condo | The Poiz Residences | The Venue Residences | Sant Ritz |
District 14
Eunos Condo | Eunos MRT Condo | Sims Avenue Condo | Changi Road Condo | Parc Esta | Eunosville | Eunosville En Bloc | City Plaza | City Plaza En Bloc | Paya Lebar Road Condo | Sims Drive Condo | Park Place Residences | Paya Lebar Quarters | Sims Avenue Condo | Paya Lebar Central |
District 15
Dunman Road Condo | Coastline Residences | Amber Sea | One Meyer | Albracca | Siglap MRT Station Condo | Marine Parade Road Condo | Casa Meyfort Condo | Meyer Mansion Floor Plans | Meyer Mansion | Meyer Modern | Nanak Mansions | Meyerhouse Exclusive Condominium | Meyerhouse | Meyerbank | Nyon | Rebirth of Amber Park Condo | Amber Park Condo Seafront Living | Amber Park | The Opus | Parkway Mansion | Amber Park En Bloc | Hawaii Tower En Bloc | Parkway Mansion En Bloc | Albracca En Bloc | Laguna Park | Laguna Park En Bloc | Tanjong Katong MRT Station Condo | Meyer Road Condo | Hawaii Tower | Katong Park MRT Condo | Katong Park Residences | Katong Park Towers | Amber Gardens Condo | Amber Road Condo | Neptune Court | Neptune Court En Bloc | Lagoon View | Lagoon View En Bloc | East Coast Marine Parade Condo | Katong Shopping Centre | Katong Shopping Centre En Bloc | Mountbatten Road Condo |
District 16
Siglap Road Condo | Mandarin Gardens | Mandarin Gardens En Bloc | New Upper Changi Road Condo | The Glades | Bedok South Condo |
District 17
The Inflora |
District 18
Tampines Court | Treasure at Tampines | Tampines Court En Bloc | Tampines Street 11 Condo | Tampines Avenue 10 Condo | Coco Palms |
District 19
Florence Regency En-Bloc | Florence Residences Condo Club | Florence Regency | Rio Casa | Kensington Park En-Bloc | Kensington Park | Serangoon Ville | Serangoon Ville En Bloc | Forestwood Residences | Hougang Avenue 2 Condo | Hougang Central Condo | Hougang Condo | Riverfront Residences | Hougang Avenue 7 Condo | Affinity | Serangoon North Avenue 1 Condo | The Garden Residences | New Condo | Serangoon Gardens Condo | Serangoon Central Condo | Lorong Lew Lian Condo | Riverbank Sengkang West Way Condominium | Yio Chu Kang Road Condo | Toho Green | Rivertrees Residences | Parc Botannia | Fernvale Road Condo | High Park Residences | Sengkang West Condo | New Tampines Road Condo | Kingsford Waterbay | Botanique at Bartley | Buangkok Condo | Buangkok MRT Station Condo | Sengkang Central Condo | Sengkang Grand Residences | Sengkang Central Residences | Sengkang Central Residences Floor Plans | Sengkang Grand Residences Floor Plans | Sengkang Central Residences Prices | Sengkang Grand Residences Prices |
District 20
Marymount Road Condo | Braddell View En Bloc | Lentor Hill Road Condo | Lentor Central Condo | Braddell View | Shunfu Road Condo | Jade Scape | Far Horizon Gardens | Far Horizon Gardens En Bloc | Ang Mo Kio Avenue 9 Condo | Faber Gardens | New Lorong Puntong Condo | Thomson Impressions Condo | Adana | Panorama | Upper Thomson Road Condo | Yio Chu Kang Road Condo | Lentor Road Condo | Caldecott Condo | Bishan Central Condo | Lentor Drive Condo |
District 21
Jalan Anak Bukit Condo | Beauty World Condo | Goh & Goh Building En Bloc | Pine Grove | Pine Grove Condo | Pandan Valley Condo | Ridgewood Condo | Ridgewood Condo En Bloc | Mayfair Collection | Mayfair Gardens Condo | Mayfair Modern | King Albert Park MRT Station Condo | Mount Sinai Condo | Ulu Pandan Road Condo | Pine Grove En Bloc |
District 22
Jurong Condo | Lake Grande Condo | Lakeville | J Gateway |
District 23
Toh Tuck Road Condo | Kismis View | Dairy Farm Road Condo | Dairy Farm Residences | Dairy Farm Residences Floor Plans | Foresque Residences | The Lanai | Hillion Residences | Bukit Batok Condo | Hillview Rise Condo | Dairy Farm Residences Prices |
District 25
Woodlands Square Condo | Woodlands Square Commercial | Woodlands Central Condo |
District 26
Springside Road Condo |
District 27
NorthPark Residences | Canberra Drive Condo Sembawang | Canberra Link Condo Sembawang | New Yishun Ave 4 Condo | The Wisteria | Condominium Yishun Central | Symphony Suites | Yishun Avenue 9 Condo | Sembawang Road Condo |
District 28
Jalan Kandis Condo | Kandis Residence |
Executive Condo
Parc Life EC | Choa Chu Kang Drive EC | Sol Acres EC | The Vales EC | Tampines Avenue 10 EC | Tampines Street 62 EC | Fernvale Lane EC | Tampines EC | Signature at Yishun | Choa Chu Kang Grove EC | Bukit Batok EC | Tengah EC | Choa Chu Kang Avenue 5 EC | Woodlands Avenue 12 EC | Sembawang Avenue EC | The Visionaire | New EC at Canberra Link | Canberra Link EC Sembawang | Parc Canberra | Yishun Avenue 9 EC | Yishun Street 51 EC | The Criterion EC Yishun | Yio Chu Kang Road EC | New EC | Serangoon North EC | Yishun Avenue 1 EC | The Terrace EC Punggol | The Amore EC Punggol | Westwood Residences EC | Anchorvale Lane EC Sengkang | Sungei Punggol Reservoir EC Sengkang | Anchorvale Street EC Sengkang | Ola EC | Ola EC Prices and Floor Plans | Westwood Avenue EC | Choa Chu Kang Way EC | Canberra Drive EC Sembawang | BrownStone EC | Choa Chu Kang EC | LakeLife EC Jurong | Jurong EC Jurong | Punggol Drive EC Punggol | Woodlands Avenue 5 EC Woodlands | Parc Canberra Floor Plans | Sumang Walk EC Punggol | Piermont Grand | Piermont Grand EC Prices | Punggol Central EC Punggol |