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Fitch Affirms Singapore at 'AAA'; Outlook Stable

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Fitch Ratings has affirmed Singapore's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'AAA'. The debt issue ratings on Singapore's senior unsecured local-currency bonds are also affirmed at 'AAA'. The Outlooks on Singapore's Long-Term IDRs are Stable. The Country Ceiling is affirmed at 'AAA' and the Short-Term Foreign Currency IDR at 'F1+'.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Singapore's of 'AAA' ratings reflect the following key rating drivers:

- One of Singapore's key credit strengths is the sovereign's exceptionally strong balance sheet, which provides the authorities with significant headroom to implement counter-cyclical policies in the event of a shock. Fitch estimates the sovereign's net foreign assets at end-2013 amounted to 91.7% of GDP, which is well over the median of 7.4% for 'AAA'-rated peers.

- Fitch estimates consolidated gross general government debt (GGGD), excluding debt held by the state pension fund, was 42.5% of GDP at end-2013, which is slightly below the 'AAA' median. However, in contrast to most other 'AAA' peers, Singapore has no fiscal financing needs and the debt is partly issued to develop the domestic bond market. Net GGD is -1.4%, implying a net creditor position, far superior to the 'AAA' median of 40% of GDP, while GGGD is wholly denominated in the local currency.

- The Government of Singapore Investment Corporation says it manages "over USD100bn" of sovereign financial assets. However, Fitch believes the figure is likely to be significantly higher than this. Fitch bases its credit assessment on publicly disclosed information, which is sufficient to support the ratings at 'AAA'.

- Fiscal discipline is another credit positive for Singapore and is underpinned by a constitutional mandate that prevents the government from running fiscal deficits during its term. Presidential approval is needed to use the country's "past reserves" (fiscal reserves accumulated during terms of previous governments). The general government fiscal surplus averaged 15.9 % of GDP annually over 2010-2014.

- Exceptionally strong current account surpluses, averaging more than 20% of GDP over the last decade, have generated a large positive net international investment position (IIP) equivalent to 190% of GDP at end-2013. Although Fitch estimates a slightly weaker current account surplus over the near- to medium-term, due to less favourable external conditions, an appreciating Singapore dollar and reduced savings because of an ageing population, it is still expected to remain strong. Fitch forecasts the current account surplus to narrow slightly to 16.5% in 2015 and 16.3% in 2016 from an estimated 17% in 2014.

- Singapore's favourable business operating environment is underpinned by respect for rule of law, strong public institutions and a supportive tax regime, which makes the country one of the preferred investment destinations in the world. Singapore is ranked as the most favourable destination for doing business in the World Bank's latest Ease of Doing Business report.

- Rising income inequality, foreign labour participation and population growth remain important political issues. The authorities aim to maintain economic growth in the face of an ageing population and a slower rate of population growth through structural reforms to raise productivity. However, weaker population growth without a strengthened productivity performance could ultimately lead to slower trend economic growth. Political stability remains underpinned by continued strong support for the ruling People's Action Party.

- As a small, open economy, Singapore inevitably experiences greater macroeconomic volatility than its 'AAA' peers. However, the strength of Singapore's sovereign and external balance sheets and the flexibility of its economy mitigate risks associated with this.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's assessment that downside risks to the 'AAA' ratings are not material. Nonetheless, the following risk factors could result in negative rating action:

- A severe regional or global economic shock sufficient to force the sovereign to draw down past reserves on a scale that impairs the sovereign's balance sheet strength. By implication this would have to be more severe than the global shock of 2008-2009

- Sustained rapid credit growth that eventually increases Singaporean private-sector leverage to a level significantly above rated peers and leads to reduced resilience to macroeconomic volatility.

- A severe banking system crisis could have a major spill-over into the economy because of the large size of the banking sector. By implication this would have to be more severe than the global shock of 2008-2009.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

- Fitch assumes that Singaporean authorities will continue to demonstrate sound economic policy management and political consensus will remain behind the present business-friendly growth model.

- Fitch assumes the continuation of a broadly open global economic environment conducive to cross-border trade and investment activity from which Singapore strongly benefits.

- Fitch assumes regional geopolitical tensions remain contained at a level that does not have lasting repercussions for economic or financial activity.

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Guest Tuesday, 18 December 2018
District 1
Marina Bay Condo | Shenton Way Commercial | Marina Bayfront Condo | Central Boulevard Condo | Central Boulevard Towers | Marina View | V on Shenton | Marina South Pier Condo | Marina One Residences | Shenton Way Condo |
District 2
Pearl Bank En Bloc | Outram Park MRT Condo | Silat Residences | Outram Road Condo | Pearl Bank Apartments | Asia Gardens | Tanjong Pagar Condo | Tanjong Pagar Commercial | Greater Southern Waterfront | Wallich Residence | Tanjong Pagar Centre |
District 3
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District 4
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District 5
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District 7
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District 9
Cairnhill Mansions En Bloc | Orchard Bel-Air En-Bloc | Pacific Mansions En Bloc | Robertson Quay Condo | Paterson Road Condo | Cavenagh Gardens En-Bloc | Cavenagh Gardens | Cavenagh Road Condo | Orchard Boulevard Road Condo | Orchard Road Condo | Scotts Road Condo | Cairnhill Road Condo | Riviera Point | Cairnhill Mansions | One Tree Hill | River Valley Road Condo | Martin Place Condo | Martin Modern | Kim Seng Road Condo | Handy Road Condo | Jiak Kim Street Condo | New Pacific Mansions 123456 | Pacific Mansions | Great World MRT Station Condo | Martin Place Residences | The Rise at Oxley Residences | Orchard Paterson Cairnhill Road Condo | Core Central Region Condo | Robertson Quay Condo | Paterson Collection | St Thomas Walk | Leonie Hill Road Condo | Horizon Towers | Leonie Gardens | New Futura | Cairnhill Nine | 3 Orchard by the Park | Twin Peaks |
District 10
Grange Road Condo | Farrer Road Condo | Tulip Gardens En Bloc | Tulip Garden | Tanglin Road Condo | Jervois Gardens | Crystal Towers | Juniper Hill | The Hyde | Balmoral Road Condo | Jervois Road Condo | Tanglin Shopping Centre En Bloc | Tanglin Shopping Centre | Jervois Gardens En Bloc | Spring Grove En Bloc | Spring Grove | Hallmark Residences | Sloane Residences | Ewe Boon Road Condo | Bukit Timah Road Condo | Cluny Park Residence | Cuscaden Road Condo | Boulevard 88 | Pollen and Bleu | Leedon Residence | Gramercy Park | Ardmore Three 3 | Sculptura Ardmore | RV Residences | Robin Residences | 18 Nouvel@ Anderson Road | Holland Road Condo | The Estoril | The Estoril En Bloc | Hollandia En Bloc | Hollandia | TwentyOne Angullia Park | D'Leedon | Mon Jervois | Holland Village Residences | One Holland Village | Holland Village Condo | Van Holland | 15 Holland Hill |
District 11
Chancery Court En Bloc | Chancery Court Condo | Thomson Road Condo | Novena Condo | Newton Road Condo | Dunearn Road Condo | 386 Dunearn | Dunearn Court Condo | Derby Court | Fyve Derbyshire | Derbyshire Road Condo |
District 12
Balestier Road Condo | Toa Payoh Condo | Neem Tree | Riverbay | Boon Teck Towers | Eight Riversuites | Boon Teck Towers En Bloc | Gem Residences | Kallang Riverside Condo |
District 13
Woodleigh Residences | Upper Serangoon Road Condo | Park Colonial | Woodleigh Lane Condo | Mattar Residences | Woodleigh MRT Condo | Woodleigh Condo | Woodleigh Link Condo | Bidadari New Estate Condo | Upper Aljunied Road Condo | Tre Ver | Raintree Gardens | Potong Pasir Avenue 1 Condo | Potong Pasir Condo | The Maisons | The Quinn | Mattar Road Condo | The Poiz Residences | The Venue Residences | Sant Ritz |
District 14
Eunos Condo | Eunos MRT Condo | Sims Avenue Condo | Changi Road Condo | Parc Esta | Eunosville | Eunosville En Bloc | City Plaza | City Plaza En Bloc | Paya Lebar Road Condo | Sims Drive Condo | Park Place Residences | Paya Lebar Quarters | Sims Avenue Condo | Paya Lebar Central |
District 15
Dunman Road Condo | Amber Sea | One Meyer | Albracca | Siglap MRT Station Condo | Marine Parade Road Condo | Casa Meyfort Condo | Nanak Mansions | Meyerhouse | Meyerbank | Nyon | Amber Park | The Opus | Parkway Mansion | Amber Park En Bloc | Hawaii Tower En Bloc | Parkway Mansion En Bloc | Albracca En Bloc | Laguna Park | Laguna Park En Bloc | Tanjong Katong MRT Station Condo | Meyer Road Condo | Hawaii Tower | Katong Park MRT Condo | Katong Park Towers | Amber Gardens Condo | Amber Road Condo | Neptune Court | Neptune Court En Bloc | Lagoon View | Lagoon View En Bloc | East Coast Marine Parade Condo | Katong Shopping Centre | Katong Shopping Centre En Bloc | Mountbatten Road Condo |
District 16
Siglap Road Condo | Mandarin Gardens | Mandarin Gardens En Bloc | New Upper Changi Road Condo | The Glades | Bedok South Condo |
District 17
The Inflora |
District 18
Tampines Court | Treasure at Tampines | Tampines Court En Bloc | Tampines Street 11 Condo | Tampines Avenue 10 Condo | Coco Palms |
District 19
Florence Regency En-Bloc | Florence Residences | Florence Regency | Rio Casa | Kensington Park En-Bloc | Kensington Park | Serangoon Ville | Serangoon Ville En Bloc | Forestwood Residences | Hougang Avenue 2 Condo | Hougang Condo | Riverfront Residences | Hougang Avenue 7 Condo | Affinity | Serangoon North Avenue 1 Condo | The Garden Residences | New Condo | Serangoon Gardens Condo | Serangoon Central Condo | Lorong Lew Lian Condo | Riverbank Sengkang West Way Condominium | Yio Chu Kang Road Condo | Toho Green | Rivertrees Residences | Parc Botannia | Fernvale Road Condo | High Park Residences | Sengkang West Condo | New Tampines Road Condo | Kingsford Waterbay | Botanique at Bartley | Buangkok Condo | Buangkok MRT Station Condo | Sengkang Central Condo |
District 20
Marymount Road Condo | Braddell View En Bloc | Braddell View | Shunfu Road Condo | Jade Scape | Far Horizon Gardens | Far Horizon Gardens En Bloc | Ang Mo Kio Avenue 9 Condo | Faber Gardens | New Lorong Puntong Condo | Thomson Impressions Condo | Adana | Panorama | Upper Thomson Road Condo | Yio Chu Kang Road Condo | Lentor Road Condo | Lentor Drive Condo |
District 21
Beauty World Condo | Goh & Goh Building En Bloc | Pine Grove | Pandan Valley Condo | Ridgewood Condo | Ridgewood Condo En Bloc | Mayfair Collection | Mayfair Gardens Condo | Mayfair Modern | King Albert Park MRT Station Condo | Mount Sinai Condo | Ulu Pandan Road Condo | Pine Grove En Bloc |
District 22
Jurong Condo | Lake Grande Condo | Lakeville | J Gateway |
District 23
Goodluck Garden | Toh Tuck Road Condo | Goodluck Gardens | Kismis View | Dairy Farm Road Condo | Foresque Residences | The Lanai | Hillion Residences | Bukit Batok Condo | Hillview Rise Condo |
District 25
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District 26
Springside Road Condo |
District 27
NorthPark Residences | Watercove Ville @ Sembawang | Canberra Drive Condo Sembawang | Canberra Link Condo Sembawang | New Yishun Ave 4 Condo | The Wisteria | Condominium Yishun Central | Symphony Suites | Yishun Avenue 9 Condo |
District 28
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Executive Condo
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